苹果的现金流问题

美国剑桥—最近我用两个非标准角度解释了企业短视的问题。一是某些短视是明智的。大企业面临着日以多变的经济、技术和政治环境——其原因包括日渐全球化、竞争日渐激烈的市场、技术变化改变企业经营环境潜力的日渐提高以及政府对商业利益影响的日渐增加。在这一多变的环境下,大公司必须在做出长期大型决策之前三思而后行。

第二,我描述了新出现的数据如何意味着传统智慧——更快的金融市场交易让它们比以前更加偏向于短视——的度量问题。这一观点的支持者指出,纽约和伦敦交易频繁,大公司股票的平均持有期在最近几十年来逐步缩短。事实上,这一变化可能是由一小撮快速交易者导致的,而不是因大股东缩短持有期造成的。事实上,美国核心股东——如富达基金公司和先锋基金公司——在最近几十年里平均持有期有所增加。(我将在更长的后续文章中深度解释这一问题)。

围绕苹果公司的股东积极主义凸显出短视问题的重要性和争议性。苹果公司在过去十年中取得了令人惊异的成功。从iPhone到iPad再到MacBook,苹果公司的产品抓住了消费者的想象力,重新创造了市场,也为公司及其股东带来了大把利润。苹果股票市值出现了飙升,成为首家万亿美元公司。

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