Por qué Estados Unidos liderará el

SINGAPUR – Al parecer, no pasa una semana sin que un pensador del panorama general dé a conocer un libro sobre el panorama general u ofrezca un sermón sobre el panorama general donde se describe el eclipse gradual de la hegemonía norteamericana en Asia. Es verdad, el poder norteamericano inevitablemente declinará en términos relativos mientras ascienden los gigantes asiáticos como China e India. Pero, al menos en lo que concierne a Asia, los argumentos sobre el fin de la hegemonía norteamericana no parecen ciertos.

Por un lado, Estados Unidos nunca fue una preeminencia en Asia. Sólo algunos triunfalistas norteamericanos de la post-guerra fría lo creían así. La naturaleza del poder norteamericano y el ejercicio de su influencia siempre fueron mucho más inteligentes y sutiles de lo que supone la mayoría. De hecho, mientras India y China ascienden, Estados Unidos bien podría encontrarse en una posición más fuerte.

¿Cómo puede ser posible? Después de todo, el poder y la influencia se construyen en base al éxito económico. La economía china se ha estado duplicando de tamaño cada diez años desde 1978. La economía india ha estado haciendo lo mismo desde 1991. En cambio, a la economía norteamericana le lleva unas dos décadas duplicar su tamaño. ¿Esto no significa acaso que Asia está avanzando rápidamente hacia un estado de multipolaridad -una configuración de grandes potencias aproximadamente iguales que se equilibran mutuamente- mientras la influencia norteamericana está en decadencia?

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