美国为什么能够领导“亚洲世纪”

新加坡——似乎每个礼拜都有一位着眼于全局的思想家发表一部着眼于全局的著作,或者进行一次着眼于全局的演讲,绘声绘色的描述美国逐步丧失亚洲霸权的过程。没错,随着中国和印度等亚洲巨人的崛起,美国的力量相对下降将成为一种不可避免的趋势。但至少在亚洲这块土地上,有关美国霸权终结的论断显得空洞无力。

首先,美国从来就不是亚洲霸主。只有美国冷战后某些胜利主义者才这样认为。美国权力的性质及其影响力的行使从来就比多数人想象中更明智、也更敏锐。事实上,随着印度和中国的崛起,美国在亚洲的地位可能会更加稳固。

为什么会是这样?归根结底,经济领域的成功才是权力和影响力的根基。中国经济总量从1978年以后每10年都以翻番的速度增长。而印度经济从1991年后也实现了同样的增长速度。相反,美国经济翻番需要大约20年。这难道不意味着亚洲正快速实现多极化——形成大致对等的强国相互制约的格局——同时美国的影响力正在日益削弱?

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