BRUSSELS – Paul Krugman, the Princeton University economist and blogger, recently summarized diverging transatlantic trends as follows: “Better here, worse there.” It is a shocking observation: as recently as in 2009, European politicians and commentators lambasted the US for being at the root of the financial turmoil and hailed the euro for protecting the continent from it.
Unfortunately for Europe’s boosters, the facts are unambiguous. According to the European Commission, US per capita GDP is expected to return to its 2007 level next year, whereas it is expected to remain 3% below that level in the eurozone.
Likewise, unemployment was roughly the same on both sides of the Atlantic in 2009-2010, but it is now almost four percentage points lower in the US. Capital expenditure in the US is recovering more strongly, and exports are picking up. Even inflation is likely to be lower in America than in Europe this year.
The one area where Europe is posting better results is public finances. In 2012, the aggregate fiscal deficit in the eurozone is expected to be slightly above 3% of GDP, compared to more than 8% in the US.