Perché conta ancora un renminbi più flessibile

CAMBRIDGE – Uno degli avvenimenti macroeconomici più rilevante degli ultimi anni è stato il netto calo del surplus di parte corrente registrato dalla Cina. Ora il Fondo monetario internazionale prevede per il 2012 un surplus pari appena al 2,3% del Pil – in ribasso dal picco evidenziato prima della crisi, nel 2007, e corrispondente al 10,1% del Pil – soprattutto a causa di una flessione del surplus commerciale cinese, che corrisponde all’eccesso di valore delle esportazioni cinesi rispetto al valore delle importazioni.

Questa contrazione ha sorpreso i molti esperti e analisti che considerano i massicci e prolungati surplus commerciali cinesi come prova sufficiente che il governo mantenga il renminbi ben al di sotto del suo valore di “equilibrio”. Il drammatico calo di surplus cinese sta forse mettendo in discussione questa saggezza comune? Gli Stati Uniti, il Fmi e gli altri player dovrebbero smettere di fare pressioni alla Cina affinché passi a un regime valutario più flessibile?

In breve, la risposta è “no”. L’economia cinese è tuttora afflitta da massicci squilibri, e passare a un regime di cambio più flessibile fungerebbe da valvola di sicurezza e da ammortizzatore.

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