谁将压倒美国?

发自华盛顿特区——伏尔泰曾说,罗马帝国的崩溃是因为“一切都崩溃了”。当然我们还可以用“没有什么是永恒的”这句话来解释国家的衰落,但这句话同时也没什么实际意义。但如果在思考美国当今的世界霸权时能够知道它何时衰落,而美国又能采取哪些方法延缓这一进程,就再好不过了。

当今的评论家们都对罗马帝国在崩溃前依然维持了数百年而感到绝望。那么美国又能否找到类似这样延长其支配地位的途径?

而在为该问题提供一个可供讨论的必要框架方面,阿尔文·苏布拉曼尼恩的新书《日食:生活在中国经济霸权的阴影之下》做出了一个重要贡献。(信息披露:苏布拉曼尼恩与笔者都在美国彼得森国际经济研究所共事,并在其他课题上展开合作)。

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