La Deuxième Guerre froide ?

TOLEDO, Espagne – La guerre dans le Caucase est-elle le prélude à une Deuxième Guerre froide ? Ou est-ce une invitation des Russes à l'Occident en vue de réformer le statu quo en place depuis la fin de la Première Guerre froide ?

L'armée russe n'est sûrement pas prête à une confrontation générale avec l'Occident. Non seulement les services de renseignement russes n'ont pas prévu l'attaque de la Géorgie contre l'Ossétie du Sud, mais le système de guerre électronique russe et les troupes au sol sous-équipées ressemblent à des reliques vieillottes de l'époque soviétique.

Mais il n'est pas nécessaire de déployer un armement dernier cri dans une guerre pour envoyer un message politique dépourvu d'ambiguïté. Force est de constater que l'influence de l'Amérique au niveau mondial est en chute libre, même si son armée est la machine militaire la plus sophistiquée de toute l'Histoire. En montrant que les USA n'ont plus le monopole de l'emploi unilatéral de la force et en envahissant un de leurs alliés – ce que même l'Union soviétique n'avait jamais osé faire – la Russie a défié ouvertement la Pax Americana résultant de la victoire américaine lors de la Guerre froide.

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