Paul Lachine

Qui devrait protéger la stabilité financière?

NEW HAVEN – Les banquiers centraux partout dans le monde n’ont pas su voir venir l’actuelle crise financière avant ses débuts en 2007. Martin Čihák du Fond Monétaire International avait indiqué en juillet 2007 que parmi les 47 banques centrales publiant des rapports de stabilité financières, « presque toutes » ont donné « une évaluation globalement positive de leur système financier national » dans leur dernière édition.

Et pourtant, même si ces banques nous ont fait défaut avant la crise, elles devraient malgré tout jouer le rôle principal dans la prévention de la prochaine crise. C’est la conclusion, peut-être contre-intuitive, à laquelle est parvenu le Groupe Squam Lake [http://squamlakegroup.org/], un groupe de réflexion de 15 spécialistes en économie financière auquel j’appartiens, dans son dernier rapport récemment publié,Fixing the Financial System (Réparer le système financier, ndt).

Les régulateurs macro-prudentiels (ceux qui au sein du gouvernement ne se focalisent pas tant sur le bien fondé des institutions financières individuelles que sur la stabilité de l’ensemble du système financier) font cruellement défaut, et les banquiers centraux sont les personnes logiquement indiquées pour remplir ce rôle. D’autres régulateurs n’ont pas mieux réussi à prédire cette crise, et sont même moins indiqués pour prévenir la prochaine.

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