应该由谁领导世界银行?

华盛顿—罗伯特·佐利克即将卸任世界银行行长一职,再一次将布雷顿森林双生儿(世界银行和国际货币基金组织)领导人这一棘手问题抛给了世人。在世行和IMF诞生的时候,凯恩斯曾发出过著名的警告:如果这两个机构不能得到优秀的领导人,那么它们将“陷入永恒的沉睡,永远无法在人世间的法院和市场中苏醒过来,让人听见它们的声音。”

当然,要获得优秀的领导人,就必须有谨慎的选择过程。但是,如今,世界正走在相反的道路上,恪守着早已过时的顽固流程,美国和欧洲不管经济状况多么糟糕,分别把持世行和IMF首脑的垄断地位。

人们已经勉强达成了共识,这一体系必须有所改变。但维持现状——欧洲和美国拒绝改变,新兴市场国家无可奈何——的力量依然强大。从去年拉加德被选为IMF领导人一事中便可一窥端倪。美国的选举年政治将进一步强化这一力量,奥巴马政府不可能放弃全球权力的象征,这将导致反对派获得微弱领导权。

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