如今谁在依附?

如果阿根廷已故的伟大经济学家罗尔·普里比时如今在世,他肯定会疑惑,这个世界是否换了人间。他影响深远的“依附”理论认为,如果穷国过度依赖于原料出口,那么。它们将永远不会达到维持快速增长所需要的产业深度。实际上,它们将陷于全球性原料价格下跌和不断降低的收入份额的恶性循环之中。

普里比时所喜爱的政策对应是保护主义。对于许多听取他的意见的拉美国家和非洲国家而言,这一政策危害不浅。但是,事实却是,普里比时可能对原料的长期价格趋势作出了正确的预测。农业和原材料采集的效率大为提高,降低了原料价格,特别是在二十世纪八十年代和九十年代。除了少数例外情况,致力于原料出口的国家惨淡经营,而许多资源匮乏的亚洲国家则高歌猛进。

然而如今,随着亚洲巨人印度和中国加入全球经济,石油、黄金、小麦以及几乎所有其他原料的价格都在扶摇直上。尽管总会有周期,例如说,石油价格再次上升之前可能还会下降,但是,长期而言,许多原料将无疑在一段时期内保持上扬趋势。

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