Chi ha perso l’Europa?

CAMBRIDGE -  Il collasso finanziario è stato evitato in Europa – per ora.  Ma il futuro dell’Unione Europea e il destino dell’eurozona sono ancora in gioco. Se l’Europa non trova presto un mezzo per riattivare  l’economia del continente sarà condannata ad anni di malumore ed a un infinito rimpallo di accuse su chi “ha sabotato il progetto europeo”.

Avendo sofferto nel 2009 un collasso economico più profondo di quello degli Stati Uniti, l’Europa rischia una ripresa molto più problematica, ammesso che si possa chiamarla ripresa. Il Fondo monetario internazionale prevede una crescita dell’eurozona dell’1% soltanto, quest’anno, e dell’1,5% nel 2011, a fronte di un 3,1 e di un 2,6% negli Stati Uniti. Persino il Giappone, in crisi profonda dagli anni 90, si prevede possa crescere più in fretta dell’Europa.

La crescita europea è condizionata da problemi di debito e dal permanere di preoccupazioni per la solvibilità della Grecia e di altri paesi altamente indebitati. Mentre il settore privato riduce i debiti e cerca di rimettere in pari i conti, la domanda da consumi e investimenti è crollata, e la produzione ne ha seguito le sorti.  Per ora i leader europei non hanno saputo offrire  soluzioni al rompicapo della crescita, al di fuori di una generica austerità.

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