¿Quién ha causado la guerra de divisas?

WASHINGTON, D.C.- El mundo está al borde de un enfrentamiento muy duro por los tipos de cambio, que ahora está llegando a afectar a la política comercial (el coqueteo de los Estados Unidos con el proteccionismo), a las actitudes para con las corrientes de capitales (nuevas restricciones en el Brasil, Tailandia y Corea del Sur) y al apoyo público a la mundialización económica (sentimientos xenófobos en aumento en todas partes). ¿Quién es el culpable de que esta situación se haya descontrolado tanto y qué es probable que ocurra a continuación?

Se suele plantear la cuestión preguntando si algunos países están “haciendo trampa” al mantener sus tipos de cambio infravalorados, con lo que impulsan sus exportaciones y limitan las importaciones, y qué ocurriría, si los bancos centrales dejaran flotar libremente su divisa local.

El culpable principal, según esa opinión habitual, es China, aunque el Fondo Monetario Internacional le sigue muy de cerca, pero, si se examina más ampliamente, la gravedad de la situación actual se debe primordialmente a la negativa de Europa a reformar la gobernación económica mundial, agravada por años de mala gestión política y autoengaño en los Estados Unidos.

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