Kdo zapříčinil měnové války?

WASHINGTON – Svět stojí na pokraji ošklivého střetu o měnové kurzy, který se dnes rozšiřuje a ovlivňuje obchodní politiku (americké flirtování s protekcionismem), přístupy ke kapitálovým tokům (nové restrikce v Brazílii, Thajsku a Jižní Koreji) i veřejnou podporu ekonomické globalizace (sílící proticizinecké nálady téměř všude na světě). Komu přičíst za vinu, že se tato situace tak silně vymkla kontrole, a co se nyní pravděpodobně stane?

Toto téma bývá obvykle obsaženo v otázce, zda některé země „podvádějí“, když drží svůj měnový kurz podhodnocený, čímž zvyšují export a omezují import oproti situaci, kdy by jejich centrální banky nechaly místní měnu volně plout.

Hlavním viníkem je podle tohoto konvenčního názoru Čína, přičemž Mezinárodní měnový fond následuje v těsném závěsu druhý. Zamyslíme-li se nad problémem šířeji, je závažnost dnešní situace způsobena zejména odmítáním Evropy reformovat globální ekonomické řízení v kombinaci s mnoha lety špatného politického vedení a sebeklamu ve Spojených státech.

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