Wer sind die Verbraucher von morgen?

SINGAPUR – Im Juli stürzten die Aktienkurse von Luxusmarken-Unternehmen ab, da ihre Geschäftsergebnisse größtenteils aufgrund rückläufiger Verkaufszahlen in den Schwellenmärkten, vor allem China, die Anleger enttäuschten. Unterdessen ist aus den Nachrichten zu erfahren, dass Luxus-Einkaufszentren in Indien und China zunehmend leer bleiben würden.

Was ist da los? Viele Analysten haben für die nächsten zehn Jahre mit einem exponentiellen Wachstum in den  Schwellenmärkten gerechnet. Jetzt allerdings hört man, wie die globale Krise diese Ökonomien bremst und die diskretionären Ausgaben abwürgt.  

Allerdings kann eine Verlangsamung des chinesischen Wirtschaftswachstums nicht für rückläufige Verkaufszahlen bei Luxusgütern oder für leere Einkaufszentren verantwortlich gemacht werden. Die jährliche Wachstumsrate der 7,5-Billionen Dollar umfassenden Wirtschaft Chinas verlangsamte sich von 8,1 Prozent zwischen Januar und März auf 7,6 Prozent im zweiten Quartal – das ist wohl kaum ein Grund zur Panik. Außerdem sind zwei Drittel des Rückganges eher auf schwächere Investitionen als auf niedrigeren Verbrauch zurückzuführen. Auch wenn China unter langfristigen Strukturproblemen leidet, schlittert es deshalb nicht in eine Rezession.

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