Paul Lachine

¿Hacia dónde va la revolución egipcia?

WASHINGTON, D. C. – La revolución de Egipto derrocó a un dictador en febrero, pero el futuro del país como democracia estable y efectiva sigue siendo incierto. Naturalmente, Occidente está limitado en su capacidad para modelar el proceso de transición. No obstante, siguen siendo considerables las posibilidades de ejercer una influencia, por lo que debería mostrarse receptivo a quienes en Egipto son partidarios de ideas liberales, instituciones democráticas y una amplia distribución de los beneficios del desarrollo económico.

Las próximas elecciones parlamentarias son una simple fase temprana en una larga lucha (tal vez durante decenios) para crear el nuevo Egipto. ¿Gravitará éste hacia la teocracia islámica o adoptará un gobierno secular que respete los derechos de las minorías? ¿Qué políticas económicas –estatista, liberal o alguna combinación de las dos– garantizará mejor la justicia social y una amplia distribución de la prosperidad? ¿Se puede establecer el control civil del ejército? ¿Sobrevivirá la estructura de seguridad regional constituida en torno a los Estados Unidos, Egipto e Israel?

Las elecciones de noviembre no resolverán esas cuestiones fundamentales y no es seguro que se cree un marco constitucional viable. Es probable que surja un sistema parlamentario de gobierno, incluido un primer ministro y un consejo de ministros, y es muy posible que la presidencia quede eclipsada, en particular si se aplazan las elecciones presidenciales. La incógnita fundamental es la composición de la coalición gobernante.

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