Paul Lachine

Où va la révolution égyptienne ?

WASHINGTON – La révolution égyptienne a renversé un dictateur en février, mais l’avenir du pays en tant de démocratie stable et efficiente reste incertain. L’Occident est, bien sûr, limité dans sa capacité à façonner ce processus de transition. Néanmoins, le potentiel pour une influence constructive reste considérable, et il devrait rester à l’écoute de ceux qui, en Egypte, soutiennent des idées libérales, des institutions démocratiques, et une ample distribution des bénéfices du développement économique.

Les prochaines élections parlementaires ne seront que la première étape d’un long combat pour définir la nouvelle Egypte, un combat qui pourrait même durer des années. L’Egypte va-t-elle graviter en direction d’une théocratie islamique ou adoptera-t-elle un gouvernement laïc qui respecte les droits des minorités ? Quelle politique économique – étatique, libérale, ou une combinaison des deux – sera mieux à même d’assurer la justice sociale et une large redistribution de la prospérité ? Est-il possible d’établir un contrôle civil de l’armée ? La structure de sécurité régionale formée autour des Etats-Unis, de l’Egypte et d’Israël survivra-t-elle ?

Les élections de novembre ne résoudront pas ces questions fondamentales et celle de la mise en place d’un cadre constitutionnel en état de fonctionner reste incertaine. Un système parlementaire de gouvernement émergera probablement, avec un Premier ministre et un cabinet, et la présidence sera fort probablement politiquement occultée, particulièrement si l’élection présidentielle est retardée. La principale inconnue reste la composition de la coalition au pouvoir.  

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/DDsrZb0/fr;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now