北朝鲜何去何从?

首尔——据朝鲜电视台报道,12月17日致金正日死亡的心脏病发作是因“过度劳累引发的严重的精神和身体压力导致的。”读了这份报告,我脑海中立即闪现出一个疑问:如果接受朝鲜政权的结论,那么金正日为什么要在身体虚弱时这么努力工作?从某种意义上讲,他的猝死似乎表明了一位陷入绝望的领导人在面对巨大挑战时的无奈。

由此看来,更重要的问题是金正日缺乏经验的儿子、年仅二十多岁的“伟大接班人”金正恩能否成功地巩固政权,并以某种方式引导这个国家走出极度困境。从目前情况看,平壤的权力交接似乎正在有序进行中。但尽管表面平稳,但除希特勒、斯大林和毛泽东外,没有几个独裁政权的权力核心能始终保持铁板一块。朝鲜也不太可能例外。

金氏家族自建国伊始就一直统治朝鲜,虽然与父亲及祖父有血缘关系,但金正恩接权的合法性依然相对薄弱。“伟大的接班人”仅仅接受过两年的在职培训,而他的父亲在金日成手下直接学习长达14年之久。当然,金正日的妹妹金敬姬和他的妹夫张成泽将在一定程度上起到摄政作用,既扮演“伟大接班人”的支持者,又动员军队紧密团结在金氏家族周围。

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