Paul Lachine

Kampak, Evropo?

PEKING – Dohoda nad řeckým dluhem a úvěrový program Evropské centrální banky výrazně snížily pravděpodobnost nakažlivého zhroucení pod vahou suverénního zadlužení a krachů evropských bank, a tak je načase pohlédnout vpřed. Kam budou Evropská unie, eurozóna a vysoce zadlužené země EU směřovat dál? Dokáže Evropa potlačit největší excesy svých sociálních států, aniž by došlo na ekonomické nesnáze a sociální nepokoje, které by vyvolaly pády vlád a vamp#160;zemích na okraji podkopaly už dnes chatrné dohody samp#160;věřiteli?

Vliv na řešení těchto otázek budou mít některé globální novinky. Ekonomika Spojených států se postupně zotavuje, třebaže podle měřítek zotavení zamp#160;hluboké recese pomalu. Čína, Brazílie a Indie se nezbavily závislosti na zákaznících vamp#160;Evropě a Severní Americe, a tak zpomalují, přestože je pravděpodobné měkké přistání, bude-li evropská recese krátká a mírná, jak se předpovídá.

Ekonomický výstup i počet obyvatel EU je oproti USA vyšší, takže osud 27 zemí EU je záležitostí všech, od New Yorku po Nové Dillí a od São Paula po Šanghaj. Eurozóna, vzniklá zprvu jako oblast volného obchodu, se skládá ze 17 zemí. Propojení 17 různorodých ekonomik, kultur a institucí byl monumentální počin, obtěžkaný rizikem.

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