非洲“前沿市场”的凋谢

    津巴布韦的选举好像再一次验证了这一真理,也就是非洲好像只有在干旱、政变、战争或者种族屠杀等灾害来临的时候才会成为国际头条新闻。但是在过去几年时间里,几个萨哈拉沙漠以南国家吸引了前所未有的外国资本。最近的全球金融风暴也只是增加了非洲的吸引力,因为与人们更为熟悉的大多数新兴市场相比,非洲前沿市场并不如此受国际市场的风吹草动影响。

    萨哈拉以南国家表现优异有三个主要原因。首先,高昂的原材料价格给这一地区原材料生产国带来巨大利润。特别是来自中国的对能源、金属以及矿产品不断增长的需求推动了外国投资达到前所未有的水平。即使是大型养老基金也开始注意到了这一点。而且,非洲的大量穷国也从主要来自美国的慈善事业巨大增长中获得了利益。

    但是,尽管这两个积极的趋势有可能会继续,但是,第三个积极因素却未必持久。每年,在非洲大陆以外的非洲人给在非洲的亲朋好友寄大约300亿美元。美国和欧洲经济放缓可能会减缓这一现金流入,因为在衰退担忧立足的时候,移民往往是首先丢掉工作。

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