Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com, and author of MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown and Company, 2022). He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration and has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.
纽约—在我2010年的书《危机经济学》(Crisis Economics),我没有像纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)在他的同名畅销书中那样,将金融危机定义为“黑天鹅”事件,而是定义为“白天鹅”。按照塔勒布的说法,黑天鹅是指从肥尾统计分布不可预测地出现的事件,如龙卷风。但我认为,金融危机至少更像是飓风:它们是经济和金融脆弱性和政策错误的可预测的结果。
时不时,我们应该预测到系统正在达到引爆点,即“明斯基时刻”(Minsky Moment),枯荣周期即将进入幻灭阶段。这类事件不是“未知的未知”,而是“已知的未知”。
除了大部分金融分析师所担心的常规经济和政策风险,还有大量可能引起地震的白天鹅在今年清晰可见。任何一宗事件都有可能引发不亚于2008年危机的严重的经济、金融、政治和地缘政治扰动。
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