Paul Lachine

Quel Moyen-Orient ?

BERLIN – Que la démocratisation au « nouveau Moyen-Orient » se concrétise par un succès ou que des formes autoritaires de gouvernement l’emportent une fois encore, un changement fondamental restera quoiqu’il en soit établi : personne ne pourra désormais plus gouverner sans tenir compte de l’opinion publique.

Ce changement aura une incidence sur les paramètres de politique étrangère du conflit au Moyen-Orient (tant dans le conflit israélo-palestinien que dans le conflit qui oppose plus largement les Israéliens et les arabes). Malgré les guerres au Liban et à Gaza, et les intifidas en Cisjordanie occupée, ces paramètres se sont avérés étonnamment stables pendant des décennies, fixés par les accords de paix avec l’Egypte et la Jordanie et les accords d’Oslo avec les Palestiniens.

Tout cela est sur le point de changer. Et alors que le choc tectonique dans la région a été déclenché par le « réveil arabe », ses acteurs ne se limitent pas au monde arabe ni au seul cadre du conflit au Moyen-Orient. Les Etats-Unis, l’Europe, la Turquie et, dans un certain sens, l’Iran jouent tous un rôle – certains plus directement que d’autres.

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