Matt Wuerker

哪一种全球化将持续下去?

坎布里奇——今年世界经济将出现自1945年以来的首次收缩,有些经济学家担心当前的危机可能是全球化结束的开始。艰难的经济时期往往伴随着保护主义,因为每个国家都在责怪他人的同时保护自己的国内工作。在20世纪30年代,这种“以邻为壑”的政策致使局势进一步恶化。除非政治领导人抵制这样的对策,否则未来可能会重演过去的一幕。

然而颇具讽刺意味的是,如此可怕的前景并不意味着全球化的结束,因为全球化被定义为全球网络依赖性的增加。全球化分为若干领域,而尽管经济学家时常把全球化和世界经济混为一谈,但其他形式的全球化——并非所有全球化都是良性的——也会对我们的日常生活造成重要的影响。

形式最古老的全球化发生在环境领域。比如,公元前1350年埃及记录了最早的传染性天花。天花于公元49年传播到中国,公元700年以后传播到欧洲,1520年后传播到美洲,1789年传播到澳大利亚。原产于亚洲的淋巴腺鼠疫、或者黑死病的流行在14世纪杀死了四分之一到三分之一的欧洲人口。

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