叙利亚和平的缔造者尚在何处?

发自丹佛——人们对于叙利亚与巴尔干战争之间的相似性已经多有论述。但当旷日持久的杀戮确实令人回想起过去的惨剧时,当年在终结波斯尼亚战事方面所付出的政治和外交努力如今却不那么引人注目了。

迄今为止,虽然在叙利亚进行了数月的现场外交行动,我们依然未能看到任何跟1994年由英国、法国、德国,俄罗斯和美国分别派代表发起,随后那年在美国俄亥俄州代顿市开始执行的联络小组计划(Contact Group plan)类似的东西。目前该国唯一的外交进程由勇气可嘉——同时也身陷重围的——前联合国秘书长科菲·安南操持着,而他比许多关注这场最新国际暴行的分析者们更清楚的一点,就是任何有持续效力的政治和解都不会是一方压倒另一方的胜利。

没人可以毫无恐惧感地坐视那些目前持续发生在叙利亚国内的,对手无寸铁平民的武装袭击——且主要是由总统阿萨德的支持者发动的。但那些认为叙利亚正处于内战边缘的人也忽视了一个每过一天都变得越发明显的事实:叙利亚已经处于内战状态,而且战线早在数月之前就已划定了。

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