¿Cuándo la economía de China superará a la de Estados Unidos?

BEIJING – ¿China va camino a superar a Estados Unidos y convertirse en la principal economía del mundo? El Fondo Monetario Internacional recientemente predijo que el volumen de la economía de China superaría al de Estados Unidos en términos de paridad de poder adquisitivo (PPA) para 2016.

Sin embargo, un estudio reciente –uno de cuyos autores es Robert Feenstra, economista de la Universidad de California, Davis- demuestra que el liderazgo económico global pasaría a manos de China en 2014. Y, con una postura aún más radical, Arvind Subramanian del Instituto Peterson de Economía Internacional sostiene que China, en realidad, ya superó a Estados Unidos en PPA en 2010.

La paridad de poder adquisitivo mide el ingreso de un país utilizando un conjunto de precios internacionales aplicados a todas las economías. Los precios en los países en desarrollo normalmente son más bajos que en los países desarrollados. Por lo tanto, su ingreso podría subestimarse si se lo calculara únicamente según el tipo de cambio. El ingreso medido en PPA ayuda a evitar este problema.

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