Quando avverrà il sorpasso dell’economia cinese su quella americana?

PECHINO – La Cina è sul punto di sorpassare gli stati Uniti e diventare la principale economia a livello mondiale? Recentemente, il Fondo Monetario Internazionale ha previsto che le dimensioni dell’economia cinese supereranno quelle statunitensi in termini di parità dei poteri d’acquisto (PPP) entro il 2016.

Ma uno studio recente, di cui è coautore Robert Feenstra, economista dell’Università di Davis in California, indica che la leadership economica globale dovrebbe passare alla Cina nel 2014. Arvind Subramanian del Peterson Institute of International Economics sostiene invece, in termini ancor più radicali, che la Cina abbia già superato gli USA in termini di parità dei poteri d’acquisto nel 2010.

La parità dei poteri d’acquisto misura il reddito di un paese utilizzando un range di prezzi di riferimento applicati alle economie. I prezzi nei paesi in via di sviluppo sono di solito inferiori rispetto a quelli dei paesi sviluppati. Pertanto, il loro reddito potrebbe essere sottostimato se calcolato solo sulla base del tasso di cambio. Il reddito misurato in termini di PPP aiuta ad evitare questo problema.

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