Janet Yellen Bao Dandan/ZumaPress

美联储提高利率之后的世界

发自维也纳——美联储是全世界最具权势的银行,而其最内部权势最大的部门则是联邦公开市场委员会,委员会的八名成员每年召开8次会议来决定(主要是通过设定利率的方式)这个全世界最大经济体的货币政策。上次美联储调高利率的时候还是2006年,但随后爆发的全球金融危机导致增长乏力,使其及各国央行只得将实际利率降为0并实施所谓量化宽松政策,将货币注入各发达经济体。

但就在今年,也就是2007年以来首次,全球所有发达经济体都同时出现了增长——包括美国。而这也意味着在资产泡沫的阴影下,联邦公开市场委员会在某个时点决定调高美国的利率。这或许会(或者不会,取决于当时的时机)有益于美国经济,但这对世界其他国家来说又意味着什么呢?

我们的研究发现了为何全球各地,尤其是新兴经济体,会对此忐忑不安。在2013年中,当美联储宣布将逐渐减少其非常规货币政策手段(例如大规模购买有抵押证券)之时,新兴市场立刻爆发了大规模资金外流。换言之,就算美联储只是暗示会在未来的会议中收紧政策,人们也会预期会对世界GDP产生中期负面效应,无论是新兴经济体还是发达工业国都概莫能外。

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