De la collision entre démocraties

BERLIN – La nature multipolaire du système international actuel sera une fois encore exposée lors du prochain Sommet du G-20 à Los Cabos au Mexique. Les problèmes globaux ne sont plus résolus, ni les crises gérées ou les règles globales définies, ni même appliquées, comme autrefois, par quelques puissances – principalement occidentales. Les nouvelles moyennes et grandes puissances, comme l’Inde, le Brésil, l’Indonésie, la Corée du Sud, la Turquie et l’Afrique du Sud, veulent elles aussi avoir leur mot à dire.

Certaines de ces puissances sont encore des économies émergeantes. Politiquement, cependant, la plupart d’entre elles ont dépassé le seuil qui les a longtemps tenu éloignées de la cuisine du processus décisionnel international. Les cinq membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU (« P5 ») défendent leur droit de veto sur les résolutions, et leur puissance militaire est incomparable. Mais ils ne disposent plus des ressources, de la compétence et de la légitimité suffisantes pour faire face aux défis globaux ou aux crises par eux-mêmes. 

La bipolarité appartient au passé et il est peu probable qu’elle ne refasse surface lors d’un nouveau « G2 » sino-américain. Comme il est aussi peu probable qu’un quelconque club de pays, comme le G7 ou le G8, n’assume une position quasi hégémonique dans un avenir prévisible. Il se peut même que le G20, dans sa composition actuelle, ne soit pas représentatif des forces capables et susceptibles de façonner le vingt-et-unième siècle.

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