民主国家间的碰撞

柏林— 当今国际制度的多极性质将在即将到来的墨西哥洛斯卡沃斯G20峰会上再次显现。全球问题的解决、危机的治理、全球规则的制定(更不用说执行了)由一小撮强国(绝大部分是西方国家)决定的日子已经一去不复返了。崛起的大国和中等国家,比如印度、巴西、印尼、韩国、土耳其和南非,无不要求获得话语权。

这些强国中不乏新兴经济体。但是,从政治上说,这些国家绝大部分已经跨越了长期横亘在它们面前、阻挠它们进入国际决策层的门槛。联合国安理会五大常任理事国(“五常”)仍保有否决权,它们在军力上的优势也依然不容撼动。但它们已不再能够随心所欲地动用充分的资源、能力和哈发行来按自己的路子应对全球性挑战和危机了。

两极时代早已过去,新的中美“G2”复现只是一个传说。同样,在可以预见的未来,形成由一组国家——比如G7和G8——占据准霸权的局面也是不可能的。从现有组成情况看,即使是G20也不能真正代表能够也将决定21世纪地球的力量。

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