Globe

Was bremst die Weltwirtschaft?

NEW YORK – Sieben Jahre nach Ausbruch der globalen Finanzkrise von 2008 stolperte die Weltwirtschaft 2015 noch immer vor sich hin. Laut dem Bericht World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 der Vereinten Nationen ist die durchschnittliche Wachstumsrate in den Entwicklungsländern seit der Krise um über 54% zurückgegangen. In den entwickelten Ländern sind schätzungsweise 44 Millionen Menschen ohne Arbeit – das sind rund zwölf Millionen mehr als 2007 –, während die Inflation ihren niedrigsten Stand seit der Krise erreicht hat.

Noch besorgniserregender ist, dass auch die Wachstumsraten in den hochentwickelten Ländern stärker schwanken. Dies überrascht, denn als entwickelte Volkswirtschaften mit uneingeschränkt offenen Kapitalbilanzen hätten sie vom freien Fluss des Kapitals und der internationalen Risikostreuung profitieren und daher kaum gesamtwirtschaftliche Volatilität erleben sollen. Darüber hinaus hätten Sozialleistungen wie etwa die Arbeitslosenunterstützung die Haushalte in die Lage versetzen sollen, ihren Verbrauch zu stabilisieren.

Doch gingen von den vorherrschenden politischen Strategien im Gefolge der Krise – Haushaltseinschnitten und einer quantitativen Lockerung seitens der wichtigen Zentralbanken – kaum Anreize für den privaten Konsum, die Investitionstätigkeit und das Wachstum aus. Im Gegenteil: Diese Maßnahmen haben die Lage tendenziell verschlimmert.

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