Pourquoi le redémarrage économique est-il difficile ?

NEW-YORK – En 2015, sept ans après le déclenchement de la crise financière mondiale en 2008, l'économie mondiale était encore en difficulté. Selon un rapport des Nations unies sur ses perspectives en 2016, le taux de croissance moyen a diminué de 54% depuis la crise dans les pays développés. Le nombre de chômeurs y est estimé à 44 millions, une augmentation de 12 millions par rapport à 2007, tandis que l'inflation est à son niveau le plus bas depuis la crise.

Plus inquiétant, le taux de croissance des pays avancés est de plus en plus volatile. C'est surprenant : en raison de leur développement économique et de leurs comptes de capitaux entièrement ouverts, ils auraient dû bénéficier de la liberté de mouvement des flux financiers et du partage des risques au niveau international, et en conséquence ne connaître qu'une faible volatilité macroéconomique. Par ailleurs, les transferts sociaux (en particulier les indemnités chômage) auraient dû permettre aux ménages de maintenir leur niveau de consommation.

Mais les principales mesures adoptées durant l'aprés-crise - contraction budgétaire et relâchement monétaire [quantitative easing, QE] de la part des grandes banques centrales – n'ont que très peu stimulé la consommation des ménages, les investissements et la croissance. Au contraire, elles ont eu tendance à aggraver la situation.

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