¿Qué es lo que amenaza a Rusia?

En Rusia está de moda despreciar el cambio fundamental en nuestra política exterior después de los ataques terroristas del año pasado en contra de EU. Según este punto de vista, Rusia vendió muy barata su lealtad a la coalición antiterrorista encabezada por los EU. A cambio de más financiamiento bilateral y multilateral, Rusia se enfrenta ahora a un número creciente de bases militares de los EU en su flanco sur en Asia Central y el Cáucaso, mientras que la OTAN se prepara para ampliarse hasta nuestra frontera occidental.

No obstante, a pesar de que las críticas contra el creciente unilateralismo de los EU (en la llamada guerra contra el terrorismo y en otros aspectos) puedan estar justificadas, los riesgos más grandes a que se enfrenta Rusia son otros. El primero se refiere al interés más básico de cualquier Estado: la defensa de su integridad territorial. Aquí, la amenaza más inmediata no viene de los Estados Unidos o la OTAN, sino de la Unión Europea, cuya ampliación significa que sus estados miembros rodearán dentro de poco la región rusa de Kaliningrado por todas partes.

La tarea de Rusia es garantizar que eso no impida el libre movimiento de personas y bienes entre Kaliningrado y el resto del país. Esta es una condición vital para que la región siga siendo rusa y, por elloby Yevgeny Primakov , se deberían otorgar visas especiales a los residentes de Kaliningrado, a fin de asegurar un tránsito simplificado a través de los países adyacentes de la UE. Sin embargo, la UE no quiere darle esos derechos a los ciudadanos de Kaliningrado.

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