Le tre nuove lezioni della crisi dell’euro

WASHINGTON, DC – Secondo alcuni osservatori la lezione principale del battesimo del fuoco dell’Eurozona è che serve una maggiore integrazione fiscale e bancaria per sostenere l’unione monetaria, eppure molti economisti avevano già prospettato questo scenario prima dell’avvento dell’euro nel 1999. Le vere lezioni della crisi dell’euro risiedono altrove – e sono del tutto nuove e sorprendenti.

Comunemente si crede che la situazione ottimale delle unioni monetarie possa essere valutata su due basi. La prima: le regioni da unire devono essere simili o dissimili in termini di vulnerabilità agli shock esterni delle loro economie? Più sono simili le regioni più risulta ottimale la risultante area valutaria, perché le risposte politiche potrebbero essere applicate uniformemente su tutto il territorio.

Se le strutture economiche fossero dissimili, allora il secondo criterio diventerebbe cruciale: gli accordi in essere dovrebbero adattarsi agli shock asimmetrici? I due piani principali enfatizzati dalla maggior parte degli economisti sono stati i trasferimenti, che potrebbero attenuare gli shock nelle regioni maggiormente colpite e la mobilità del lavoro, che consentirebbe ai lavoratori provenienti da tali regioni di spostarsi nelle aree meno colpite.

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