Quanto sarà ampia la via di uscita dalla crisi?

BRUXELLES – L’Eurozona sta attraversando una fase di caos dettata da una fuga collettiva degli investitori. I rendimenti sul debito governativo dei paesi periferici di Eurolandia stanno schizzando alle stelle, perché gli investitori non sanno esattamente a quali rischi andranno incontro.

Le autorità tendono a smorzare i toni. A loro avviso, gli investitori non dovrebbero preoccuparsi, perché l’attuale meccanismo di salvataggio – European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) – ha funzionato sinora senza alcuna ripercussione sugli obbligazionisti e sarà applicato fino al 2013. Solo dopo tale data il nuovo meccanismo potrebbe esporre gli investitori privati a eventuali perdite, e solo in caso di debito emesso dopo tale data.

Tuttavia, i mercati non si fidano di tale messaggio – e per una buona ragione: non è credibile, perché non ha alcun senso economico. Dopo tutto, la richiesta di risarcimento, che sarà generata dal rischio di perdita per il debito emesso dopo l’attuazione del nuovo meccanismo anti-crisi nel 2014, implica che tutti i titoli di debito emessi fino a tale data sono sicuri, e che l’insolvenza potrà aver luogo solo in un futuro lontano, e non nell’immediato, come in Grecia e Irlanda. In effetti, i funzionari Ue stanno dicendo agli investitori: “A chi credete, a noi o ai vostri occhi?”

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