Wie groß soll der Notausgang sein?

BRÜSSEL – Die Eurozone befindet sich in Turbulenzen, weil die Anleger kollektiv zum Notausgang strömen. Die Staatsanleihe-Renditen von Ländern an der Peripherie der Eurozone schnellen in die Höhe, weil die Investoren die Risiken nicht wirklich kennen.

Von offizieller Seite wird beruhigt. Die Anleger sollen sich keine Sorgen machen, da der aktuelle Rettungsschirm  – die EuropäischeFinanzstabilitätsfazilität (EFSF) – bislang ohne Haircut für Anleiheinhaber funktioniert hat und bis etwa 2013 weiter in Kraft bleiben wird. Erst danach würde ein neuer Mechanismus die Beteiligung privater Gläubiger an Verlusten vorsehen und das auch nur bei Anleihen, die nach diesem Zeitpunkt ausgegeben werden.  

Allerdings trauen die Märkte dieser Botschaft nicht – und das aus gutem Grund: Sie ist nicht glaubwürdig, weil sie wirtschaftlich keinen Sinn ergibt. Denn die Behauptung, dass das Risiko eines Verlusts erst bei Anleihen besteht, die nach der Einführung des neuen Krisenmechanismus 2014 ausgegeben werden, impliziert, dass alle Anleihen bis dahin sicher sind und dass eine Pleite nicht jetzt – wie in Griechenland und Irland – einsetzen kann, sondern erst in fernerer Zukunft.  Die offiziellen Vertreter der EU teilen den Anlegern im Endeffekt mit: „Wem traut ihr mehr – uns oder euren eigenen Augen?“

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