Какая кнопка перезагрузки?

МОСКВА. Появление кремлевского лидера, президента Дмитрия Медведева, у которого нет прошлого, связанного с КГБ, а также экономический кризис позволяли говорить о том, что когда Барак Обама будет с визитом в Москве, он сможет увидеть страну в преддверии новой политической оттепели, воскрешенную перестройку. Однако нажатие «кнопки перезагрузки» в отношениях США и России может потребовать больше усилий, чем ожидали Обама и его команда.

Российские (или советские) лидеры прибегают к перестройке или оттепели, только когда их вынуждают к этому экстремальные условия, угрожающие выживанию режима. Атмосфера смертельного страха, взаимной подозрительности и ненависти среди коммунистической элиты стали катализатором для постсталинской оттепели Никиты Хрущева. Для Михаила Горбачева в 1980-х годах катализатором для его перестройки стал прогрессирующий паралич экономики СССР.

Для обоих руководителей первоочередной приоритет заключался в удержании власти. Изменение системы и ослабление их хватки за власть было рискованным шагом, который мог подорвать их авторитет. Однако, по-видимому, риск инерции был еще выше. В конце концов, выбрав перемены, оба были вынуждены против своей воли преждевременно оставить свои посты.

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