Quelle remise à zéro ?

MOSCOU – L’apparition à la tête du Kremlin d'un dirigeant sans lien avec le KGB, le président Dmitri Medvedev, sur fond de crise économique, a laissé penser que lors de sa venue à Moscou, le président des Etats-Unis Barack Obama verrait un pays au bord du dégel politique, une nouvelle perestroïka . Mais remettre à zéro les relations russo-américaines sera plus difficile que ce qu’Obama et son équipe avaient escompté.

Les dirigeants russes (ou soviétiques) optent pour la perestroïka ou le dégel seulement lorsque de terribles conditions menaçant la survie du régime les y poussent. Un climat de terreur mortelle, de suspicion mutuelle et de haine au sein de l’élite communiste fut le catalyseur du dégel post-stalinien de Nikita Khrouchtchev. Le catalyseur de la perestroïka de Mikhaïl Gorbatchev dans les années 1980 fut la paralysie croissante de l’économie de l’URSS.

Les deux hommes visaient avant tout à s’accrocher au pouvoir. Changer le système et relâcher leur emprise sur le pouvoir était un risque qui pouvait saper leur autorité. Mais, l'inertie était, semble-t-il, encore plus risquée. En fin de compte, opter pour le changement a forcé les deux hommes à quitter leur poste à une époque prématurée et contre leur volonté.

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