¿Qué pasa ahora en Oriente Medio?

La situación política y de seguridad en la vasta región comprendida entre el Valle del Indus y las costas del Mediterráneo oriental es causa de grave preocupación. Cuando Estados Unidos intervino militarmente en Irak en 1991, la intención era efectuar un cambio fundamental en toda la región. Hoy es evidente que prácticamente todos los aspectos de esta política fracasaron. Incluso el éxito de las elecciones libres en Irak amenaza con dividir más que unir al país.

A decir verdad, las relaciones de poder existentes en Oriente Medio se vieron sacudidas, y de hecho revolucionadas, de manera permanente. El efecto, sin embargo, no fue el de una democratización tipo dominó; más bien, nos vemos amenazados por un efecto dominó de caída en el caos.

La decisión de entrar en guerra con Irak para liberar a Kuwait, en 1991, marcó el comienzo del rol de Estados Unidos como la única potencia militar hegemónica en la región. La decisión de entrar en guerra con Irak por segunda vez, y luego ocupar el país en marzo de 2003, transformó esta hegemonía en una responsabilidad norteamericana directa frente al futuro de Oriente Medio.

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