Quel avenir pour le Moyen-Orient ?

La situation politique et les problèmes de sécurité sont extrêmement préoccupants dans la vaste région comprise entre la vallée de l'Indus et la rive est de la Méditerranée. Quand les USA sont intervenus militairement en Irak en 1991, leur objectif était d'entraîner un changement radical dans toute cette région. Aujourd'hui, il est clair que pour l'essentiel ils n'y sont pas parvenus, quel que soit le domaine considéré. Et même un succès, la tenue d'élections libres en Irak, menace de diviser le pays, plutôt que de l'unifier.

Les relations de pouvoir au Moyen-Orient sont instables, en transformation constante, ce qui n'entraîne pas un effet de dominos vers la démocratisation, mais soulève la menace d'une chute en dominos vers le chaos.

En 1991, la décision de partir en guerre contre l'Irak pour libérer le Koweït a marqué le début du rôle de l'Amérique comme seul pouvoir militaire hégémonique dans la région. La décision de mener la guerre contre l'Irak pour une deuxième fois et d'occuper le pays en mars 2003 a transformé cette hégémonie en responsabilité directe des USA quant à l'avenir du Moyen-Orient.

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