Welche Geldpolitik braucht China?

In jüngster Zeit wurde das bemerkenswerte Wachstum Chinas durch eine rasante Geld- und Kreditexpansion finanziert, die zu einem zunehmend unhaltbaren Investitionsboom führt. Dies gibt erneut Anlass zur Sorge, das Land könnte außer Stande sein, die mögliche Neuauflage eines schmerzhaften Boom-and-Bust-Zyklus abzuwenden, wie er das Land Mitte der 1990er Jahre ereilte.

In derartigen Situationen wendet man sich normalerweise als erstes geldpolitischen Maßnahmen zu. Allerdings ist Chinas Geldpolitik durch ein rigoroses Wechselkursregime gelähmt, das die chinesische Zentralbank – die People’s Bank of China (PBC) – daran hindert, geeignete strategische Entscheidungen hinsichtlich der Inlandsnachfrage zu treffen, denn Zinsanstiege könnten Kapitalzuflüsse bewirken und so noch mehr Druck auf den Wechselkurs ausüben.

Natürlich gibt es momentan eine heftige Debatte über die chinesische Wechselkurspolitik. Aufgrund des steigenden chinesischen Handelsbilanzüberschusses fordern manche Beobachter eine Neubewertung des Renminbi, um den in ihren Augen unfairen Wettbewerbsvorteil Chinas auf den internationalen Märkten zu korrigieren. Andere wiederum argumentieren, dass die stabilen Wechselkurse der makroökonomischen Stabilität in China förderlich seien. Diese Debatte geht allerdings am Kern der Sache vorbei.

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