中国需要何种货币政策?

最近,中国货币和银行信贷的快速扩张为其引人注目的经济增长提供了资金,而这正在产生一个愈发难以持久的投资激增。这重新引发人们的担忧,那就是中国可能无法避免重演其在九十年代中期所经历的痛苦的经济繁荣破灭循环。

在这种情况下,货币政策往往是第一道防线。但是中国的货币政策却被严格管理的汇率体系所削弱。这一体系阻止中央银行即中国人民银行作出适当的政策决定来管理国内需求,因为利率提升可能会鼓励资本流入并且进一步对汇率造成压力。

当然,有关中国的汇率政策一直争论不休。中国上升的贸易顺差让某些观察家呼吁对人民币重新估价,以便修正他们所认为的中国在国际市场中维持的不公平的竞争优势。其他人则提出,稳定的汇率促进中国的宏观经济稳定。但是,这一论点不得要领。

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