Was bringt 2011?

NEW YORK: Die Weltwirtschaft beendet das Jahr 2010 gespaltener, als sie es begonnen hat. Schwellenmärkte wie Indien, China und die südostasiatischen Volkswirtschaften verzeichnen ein robustes Wachstum; Europa und die USA dagegen haben mit Stagnation – ja, tatsächlich einer Malaise japanischen Stils – und hartnäckig hoher Arbeitslosigkeit zu kämpfen. Das Problem in den hoch entwickelten Ländern ist dabei keine Erholung ohne Schaffung neuer Arbeitsplätze, sondern eine anämische Erholung – oder schlimmer noch die Möglichkeit einer W-förmigen Rezession.

Diese zweigleisige Welt wirft einige ungewöhnliche Risiken auf. Während Asiens Wirtschaftsleistung zu gering ist, um das Wachstum in der übrigen Welt nach oben zu ziehen, könnte sie ausreichen, um die Rohstoffpreise in die Höhe zu drücken.

Zugleich könnten die US-Bemühungen zur Ankurbelung ihrer Wirtschaft durch die von der US Federal Reserve verfolgte Politik der „quantitativen Lockerung“ nach hinten losgehen. Schließlich sucht das Geld auf den globalisierten Finanzmärkten nach den besten weltweiten Anlagegelegenheiten, und die bestehen nun einmal in Asien und nicht in den USA. Daher fließt das Geld nicht unbedingt dorthin, wo es gebraucht wird, und viel davon landet an Orten, wo es unerwünscht ist und eine weitere Zunahme der Vermögens- und Rohstoffpreise verursacht, insbesondere in den Schwellenmärkten.

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