A quoi faut-il s’attendre en 2011 ?

NEW YORK – A la fin 2010, l’économie mondiale est plus divisée qu’elle ne l’était en début d’année. D’un côté, les marchés émergents comme l’Inde, la Chine et les économies du Sud-Est asiatique connaissent une croissance solide. De l’autre, l’Europe et les Etats-Unis sont confrontés à une stagnation – en fait, un malaise semblable à celui éprouvé par le Japon – et à un taux de chômage élevé et persistant. Le problème des pays avancés n’est pas celui d’une reprise sans création d’emplois, mais d’une reprise anémique – ou pire, une éventuelle récession à double creux.

Ce monde à deux vitesses présente des risques inhabituels. Alors que la production économique de l’Asie est trop faible pour tirer la croissance du reste du monde, elle est peut-être suffisante pour faire grimper le prix des manières premières.

Parallèlement, les tentatives faites par les Etats-Unis pour stimuler leur économie par le biais de la politique d’assouplissement quantitatif appliquée par la Réserve fédérale américaine (la Fed) pourraient avoir un effet inverse à l’effet recherché. Sur les marchés financiers mondialisés, les investisseurs cherchent les meilleurs placements pour leur argent, et ces placements sont en Asie, pas aux Etats-Unis. L’argent n’ira donc pas là où il serait nécessaire, mais là où il ne faut pas – provoquant de nouvelles flambées des prix des actifs et des matières premières, dans les marchés émergents en particulier.

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