2011年将迎来什么?

发自纽约——相对于2010年初,今年年末的全球经济更为分化。一方面,印度,中国这样的新兴市场国家以及东南亚经济体都在蓬勃增长。而另一方面,欧美却面临着滞胀(其实就是一种日本式的经济萎靡)以及挥之不去的高失业率。发达国家当前的问题并不是一场缺乏就业的复苏,而是一场贫血的复苏——或者再更悲观地说:一种二次衰退的可能性。

这一两极发展的状况也因此引发了某些特殊风险:虽然亚洲经济尚不足以带动世界其他地区的增长,但在推高商品价格方面却已绰绰有余了。

与此同时,美国试图通过美联储的“量化宽松”政策来刺激国内经济的做法可能会弄巧反拙。毕竟在全球金融市场中资金总是向那些最繁荣的地区流动,而这些区域目前是在亚洲而不是美国。因此资金是不会向那些急需它的地方流动的,而是涌向那些不需要它的地方——这会导致资产和商品价格进一步升值,在新兴市场尤甚。

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