ماذا ينتظرنا في عام 2011؟

نيويورك ـ إن الاقتصاد العالمي ينهي عام 2010 وقد أصبح أكثر انقساماً مما كان عليه في بداية العام. فمن ناحية، تشهد بلدان الأسواق الناشئة مثل الهند والصين وبلدان جنوب شرق آسيا نمواً قوياً. ومن ناحية أخرى تواجه أوروبا والولايات المتحدة الركود ـ في الواقع وعكة على الطريقة اليابانية ـ ومعدلات البطالة المرتفعة. والمشكلة في البلدان المتقدمة ليست التعافي بلا وظائف، بل التعافي الهزيل ـ أو ما هو أسوأ، أي الركود المزدوج.

وهذا العالم ذو المسارين يفرض بعض المخاطر غير العادية. ففي حين أن حجم الناتج الاقتصادي في آسيا أصغر من أن يتمكن من دفع النمو في بقية العالم إلى الارتفاع، فإنه قد يكون كبيراً بالدرجة الكافية لدفع أسعار السلع الأساسية إلى الارتفاع.

وفي الوقت عينه فإن الجهود التي تبذلها الولايات المتحدة لتحفيز اقتصادها من خلال سياسة "التيسير الكمي" التي انتهجها بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي قد تؤدي إلى نتائج عكسية. ففي الأسواق العالمية التي تحكمها العولمة، يبحث المال عن أفضل التوقعات في مختلف أنحاء العالم، وهذه التوقعات أصبحت الآن في آسيا وليس في الولايات المتحدة. لذا فإن المال لن يذهب إلى حيث تشتد الحاجة إليه، بل إن أغلبه سوف ينتهي إلى حيث لا حاجة إليه ـ الأمر الذي لابد وأن يؤدي إلى زيادة أخرى في أسعار الأصول والسلع الأساسية، وخاصة في الأسواق الناشئة.

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