¿Cuál es la fase final del déficit?

REIKIAVIK – Todavía nadie tiene una idea clara de cuándo acabará la crisis financiera global, pero una cosa es segura: los déficit presupuestales de los gobiernos se dirigen a la estratósfera. En los próximos años, habrá que convencer a los inversionistas de que adquieran grandes cantidades de deuda nueva.

Si bien los gobiernos pueden tratar de endosar la deuda pública a los ahorradores locales (mediante, por ejemplo, el uso de su influencia creciente sobre los bancos para obligarlos a adquirir una cantidad desproporcionada de valores públicos), a la larga también tendrán que pagar tasas de interés mucho más elevadas. En un par de años, las tasas de interés de los bonos de la Tesorería de Estados Unidos podrían aumentar fácilmente un 3-4%, y las de otros instrumentos de deuda pública podrían crecer en grado similar o aun mayor.

Las tasas de interés aumentarán para compensar a los inversionistas tanto por tener que aceptar una mayor proporción de bonos del gobierno en sus portafolios como por el riesgo creciente de que los gobiernos se vean tentados a inflar el valor de sus deudas o incluso que dejen de pagar.

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