Jak skončí deficity?

REYKJAVÍK – Nikdo sice nemá skutečné ponětí, kdy světová finanční krize skončí, ale jedna věc je jistá: rozpočtové deficity vlád směřují do závratných výšin. V�nadcházejících letech bude zapotřebí přesvědčit investory, aby přijali hory nových dluhů.

Ač se vlády mohou pokusit vnutit státní dluh místním střadatelům (třeba tím, že využijí svého narůstajícího vlivu nad bankami a přimějí je držet v�majetku neúměrně velké množství cenných papírů vydaných vládou), nakonec stejně zjistí, že musí platit mnohem vyšší úrokové sazby. Úrokové sazby u dlouhodobých státních pokladničních poukázek USA by během několika let mohly snadno stoupnout o 3-4%, přičemž sazby u ostatních vládních papírů by vzrostly stejně anebo ještě víc.

Úrokové sazby porostou, aby investorům kompenzovaly jednak to, že budou muset do svých portfolií přijmout větší podíl státních dluhopisů, jednak sílící riziko, že vlády budou v�pokušení rozpustit své dluhy inflací, anebo že se dokonce dostanou do platební neschopnosti.

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