Was ist los mit Indien?

CHICAGO: Das Wirtschaftswachstum in Schwellenmärkten überall auf der Welt – darunter Brasilien, China, Indien und Russland, um nur die größten zu nennen – verlangsamt sich. Ein Grund dafür ist, dass diese Länder nach wie vor direkt oder indirekt von Exporten in die hoch entwickelten Industrieländer abhängig sind. Langsames Wachstum dort, insbesondere in Europa, drückt auf die Wirtschaft.

Ein zweiter Grund freilich ist, dass alle diese Länder wichtige Schwächen aufweisen, die sie in den guten Zeiten nicht beseitigt haben. Was China angeht, ist dies die übermäßige Abhängigkeit von Anlageinvestitionen, an der das Wachstum hängt. In Brasilien sorgen niedrige Ersparnisse und verschiedene institutionelle Hemmnisse für hohe Zinsen und geringe Investitionen, während große Teile der Bevölkerung durch das Bildungssystem nur schlecht versorgt werden. Und das Wachstum in Russland ist trotz dessen sehr gut ausgebildeter Bevölkerung weiter von den Rohstoffbranchen abhängig.

Am schwersten begreiflich ist allerdings, warum Indien so stark hinter seinem Potenzial zurückbleibt. Tatsächlich ist das jährliche BIP-Wachstum seit 2010 um fünf Prozentpunkte gefallen.

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