Qu’est-il arrivé à l’Inde?

CHICAGO – Partout dans le monde, les marchés émergents – le Brésil, la Chine, l’Inde, et la Russie, pour ne nommer que les plus importants – sont au ralenti. Une des causes étant qu’ils dépendent encore, directement ou indirectement, des exportations aux économies industrielles avancées. La croissance anémique qui y règne, surtout en Europe, exerce une pression à la baisse sur leur économie.

Mais une seconde cause réside dans des lacunes internes importantes, qu’ils n’ont pas su combler dans les périodes fastes. Pour la Chine, ce qui est en cause, c’est son recours abusif aux investissements en immobilisations pour générer de la croissance. Au Brésil, une épargne absente et divers obstacles institutionnels maintiennent les taux d’intérêt à un niveau élevé et affaiblissent les investissements, alors que de grands pans de la population ne sont pas bien desservis par le système d’éducation. Et la Russie, malgré sa population très instruite, continue à assoir sa croissance économique sur les secteurs des produits de base.

Mais il est plus difficile de comprendre pourquoi l’Inde obtient des résultats inférieurs par rapport à son potentiel. En effet, la croissance annuelle du PIB s’est affaissée de cinq points de pourcentage depuis 2010.

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