Was für eine Eurokrise?

FRANKFURT: Was stellt eine Krise dar? Ein nachhaltiger wirtschaftlicher Niedergang, hohe und langanhaltende Arbeitslosigkeit, Armut, galoppierende Inflation, ein steiler Fall des Wechselkurses, Haushaltsdefizite, hohe Kreditkosten und politische Dysfunktionalität? Die meisten würden bereits von einer Krise sprechen, wenn nur einige dieser „Elendsindikatoren“ vorliegen. Doch während weithin die Vorstellung herrscht, dass Europa in der Krise steckt, sind nur eine Handvoll dieser Indikatoren präsent, und auch das nur in einigen Euroländern.

Warum also haben wir eine Krise in der Eurozone, und wodurch wird diese definiert? Es wird immer wieder argumentiert, dass die Einheitswährung den unterschiedlichen Anforderungen der Mitgliedsländer nicht gerecht wird und nicht aufrecht zu erhaltende wirtschaftliche Divergenzen letztlich die Aufgabe des Euro erfordern werden.

Zu den meistzitierten fatalen Divergenzen gehören Unterschiede bei Wachstumsraten, Arbeitsbeschaffung und Arbeitslosenquoten sowie dramatische Missverhältnisse bei den Leistungsbilanzen, die alle auf große Differenzen bei den Lohnstückkosten zurückzuführen sein könnten. Die Wahrnehmung derartiger Divergenzen zwingt Problemländern erhebliche Risikoaufschläge auf, die unweigerlich zu einer sich beschleunigenden Kapitalflucht in sichere Häfen führen.

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