Que veut l'Allemagne ?

PRINCETON - A présent, chacun sait que l'Allemagne mène le jeu non seulement dans la zone euro, mais dans l'ensemble de l'Europe. A l'intérieur de l'Allemagne, d'interminables débats ont eu lieu sur l'identité allemande - ce qu'un historien a appelé « le différend continuel sur ce qu'être Allemand peut vouloir dire ». Mais en termes de politique étrangère, l'Allemagne de l'Ouest d'après-guerre - et plus tard, l'Allemagne réunifiée - a été totalement prévisible : jamais contre l'Ouest, toujours plus d'Europe. Maintenant, la « République de Berlin » est très sûre de son identité - et est apparemment déboussolée dans ses relations avec le monde.

Il existe des raisons structurelles à ce changement. L'Allemagne est trop petite pour être un acteur à l'échelle mondiale, mais trop grande pour être première parmi ses pairs en Europe. Alors que les Allemands ne voient pas en général la légitimité d'un rôle mondial, même en alliance avec les anciens partenaires du pays, les voisins de l'Allemagne ne trouvent pas qu'une Europe menée par l'Allemagne soit légitime.

Contrairement aux craintes de beaucoup de ces pays voisins en 1990 (et contrairement à ce que désormais de nombreux analystes prétendent), la République de Berlin n'est pas plus nationaliste que l'ancienne Allemagne de l'Ouest. Certes, les milieux pacifistes libéraux de gauche, qui dans l'ancienne République fédérale ont influencé l'opinion publique de manière disproportionnée par leurs piétés politiques, ont disparu dans les années 1990. Mais aujourd'hui une Allemagne plus « normale » n'a pas commencé par oublier le passé nazi ni par se réaffirmer en tant que grande puissance.

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